Is there a probability of success above or below which you will recommend undertaking the pilot and below or above which you will recommend a go/ no go decision on the underlying project without undertaking a pilot test?

.7 and .3 for the probabilities. the Real Options approach.  Using the Example Problem, the probability of a successful pilot project is now .7 (instead of .5) and the probability of an unsuccessful pilot is .3 (instead of .5). Answer the following questions: What is the expected NPV in each case now? What do you recommend? Why? If you don’t know the probability of success for the pilot, is there a value that is critical to your recommendation? Is there a probability of success above or below which you will recommend undertaking the pilot and below or above which you will recommend a go/ no go decision on the underlying project without undertaking a pilot test?