# Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

###### Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

THIS IS A TWO PART PROJECT PLEASE DO BOTH AND INDICATE EACH PART SEPERATLY. i HAVE BOTH BOTH INSTRUCTIONS FOR PART 1 AND PART 2 HERE IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS PLEASE LET ME KNOW. tHANK YOU Required Resources Read/review the following resources for this activity: Textbook: Chapter 8 Week 7 Project Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true. In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations. The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces however it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces. Choose a Data Set. Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm (Links to an external site.) In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths screenshot of CDC website toolbar Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example, screenshot of National Vital Statistics Reports webpage Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009. screenshot of example dataset Preliminary Calculations Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the mean, median, sample/population standard deviation, n = number of states that submitted data for each the data sets. You will have FOUR tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You could have 52 numbers for each data set. You may have less data numbers if not all states/territories submitted data values.) Summary Table for _________ Mean Median Standard Deviation n (Number of States who submitted Data) Hypothesis Testing With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate): Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 5000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 2500 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance. For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to— Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis Give the value of the test statistic Report the P-Value Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null) Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data. 4. Make your OWN Claim (You are completing ONE more Hypothesis Test) Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis. a) Pick one data set: Births, Deaths, Marriages OR Divorces. b) Write a claim about the data set. c) For your claim— Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis Give the value of the test statistic Report the P-Value Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null) Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data. Rubric Week 7 Project: Part II Week 7 Project: Part II CriteriaRatingsPts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data 5 pts Proficient. Student computes all 4 Preliminary Data Values. 4 pts Above Average. Student computes all 3 Preliminary Data Values. 3 pts Average. Student computes all 2 Preliminary Data Values. 1 pts Needs Improvement. Student computes all 1 Preliminary Data Values. 0 pts No Effort. No Preliminary Data 5 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing 20 pts Proficient. Completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 16 pts Above Average. Completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 14 pts Average. Completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 10 pts Needs Improvement: Completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 0 pts No Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed. 20 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis 10 pts Proficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems. 8 pts Above Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems. 7 pts Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems. 5 pts Needs Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem 0 pts No Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given. 10 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test 10 pts Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 8 pts Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets correclty and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 7 pts Average. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 5 pts Needs Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid. 0 pts No Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test. 10 pts Total Points: 45 Lesson Scenario/Summary You will complete a Course Project in this course that will span two weeks. The final project is due the Sunday of Week 7. The project is broken into two parts. You will complete Part I in Week 6 and Part II in Week 7. In Week 6, Confidence Intervals will be explored and in Week 7 Hypothesis testing will be explored. A confidence interval is a defined range of values such that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within the interval. In Part I of this project, you will pick a topic, complete research and provide a write-up that includes calculations. Round all values to two decimal places when appropriate. Deliverables Choose a Topic where you can gather at least 50 pieces of data. Examples of Topics The Golden Gate Warriors Points Per Game in 2016 (use the points scored in the first 50 games). High School Graduation Rates by State (use the graduation rates for all 50 states) Average Tuition Rates in the US (You have to find the tuition rates of 50 college/universities). The prices of a hotel room per night in a major city (You have to find the price of the same night of hotels in one city). Weights of 50 babies at birth. Write at least a 1-Page Report Open a Word Document Introduction–Provide a description of your topic and cite where you found your data. Sample Data—Include a 5×10 table including your 50 values in your report. You must provide ALL of your sample data. Problem Computations—For the topic you chose, you must answer the following: Determine the mean and standard deviation of your sample. Find the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals. Make sure to list the margin of error for the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence interval. Create your own confidence interval (you cannot use 80%, 95%, and 99%) and make sure to show your work. Make sure to list the margin of error. Problem Analysis—Write a half-page reflection. What trend do you see takes place to the confidence interval as the confidence level rises? Explain mathematically why that takes place. Provide a sentence for each confidence interval created in part c) which explains what the confidence interval means in context of topic of your project. Explain how Part I of the project has helped you understand confidence intervals better? How did this project help you understand statistics better? Required Software Microsoft Office: Word and Excel Use a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.). Grading This activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric. You can view the rubric below. Course Outcomes (CO): 6 Due Date: Course Project Part I By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 6 Rubric Week 6 Project: Part I Week 6 Project: Part I CriteriaRatingsPts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Topic & Introduction 4 pts Proficient Student picks appropriate topic, provides a description of topic and the cites where data was found. 3 pts Above Average Student picks appropriate topic and introduces data. No citation. 2 pts Average. Student does not pick a topic that is appropriate for the project, introduces the data but does not cite source. 1 pts Needs Improvement Students provides topic without descritption and citation. 0 pts No Effort. No topic, descritpion or citation is provided. 4 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Sample Data 4 pts Proficient Student provides ALL 50 pieces of data. 3 pts Above Average Student provides 30-49 pieces of data. 2 pts Average Student provides 20 – 29 pieces of data. 1 pts Needs Improvement Student provides 1-19 pieces of data. 0 pts No Effort. No Data was provided. 4 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Mean & Standard Deviation 5 pts Proficient Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct with no rounding error. . 4 pts Above Average Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct but with roujnding error. 3 pts Average One Value (either mean or sample standsrd deviation) is correct but the other is not correct. 1 pts Needs Improvement Both the Mean & Sample Standard Deviation are incorrect but it was attempted. 0 pts No Effort. The mean and sample standard deviation 5 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Constructing the 80%, 95%, 99% Confidence Intervals 15 pts Proficient Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty making sure to note the margin of error for each. 12 pts Above Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty but is missing margin of errors (or some of the margin of errors are incorrect). 10 pts Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but there are some errors in the calculations. 6 pts Needs Improvement Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but all of the values are incorrect. The component was attempted. 0 pts No Effort. No Confidence Intervals are provided. 15 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Creating a new confidence interval 7 pts Proficient. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error. 5 pts Above Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error but there is rounding error. 4 pts Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly but does not highlight the margin of error. 3 pts Needs Improvement Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) but it was not done correctly. 0 pts No Effort. The student did not create a new confidence interval. 7 pts This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Problem Analysis 10 pts Proficient. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for each confidence interval created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. Provides a reflection for Part I of the project. 8 pts Above Average. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides sentences for each confidence interval created explaining what the confience interval means in context of the data collected. Does NOT provide a Reflection. 7 pts Average. Student may or may not address the trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for SOME confidence intervaSl created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. A reflection Part I of the project may or may not be provided. 5 pts Needs Improvement. Majority of the analysis is missing. 0 pts No Effort. No Problem Anaylsis is provided. 10 pts Total Points: 45