Evaluate Short-term Forecasting Nominal Oil Price.

Evaluate the Forecast Nominal Oil Price on 1,3,6,9,12 month horizon based on ‘Forecasting the Price’ by Alquist, Killian, Vigfusson (2011) – using models in section 5.1, 5.2.1, 5.2.1, 5.2.4 (except equation 16 & 17). Matlab is required for the coding and analysis. The oil price will be both (monthly) Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma and Brent Crude Europe. For WTI the initial estimation window (for regression based models) is 1992/01-1996/12. Forecast evaluation starts from 1997/01-2019/06. For Brent the initial estimation window (for regression based models) is 1994/07-1999/06. Forecast evaluation starts from 1999/07-2019/06.